Reading The Tea Leaves: Trump's insurmountable uphill climb...

(Image courtesy of 538)





I had previously predicted that we would start to see the polls tighten as we inched closer to election day, and that still may happen, but as it stands today, Donald Trump has a steep uphill climb to stop Clinton's momentum and overtake her for a win on November 8th. Via the Politico:




"With two weeks to go, Donald Trump’s path to an election night win is almost entirely closed.
Hillary Clinton enters the final 15 days of the race safely ahead in states worth more than 270 electoral votes. Indeed, the suspense of this final stretch is less about whether Trump can turn it around than how many down-ballot Republicans he will drag down with him.
“Trump is done,” said Republican operative Jim Dornan, who advised the New York businessman in the preparatory stages of his campaign last year. “Barring something completely out of the blue, like Hillary being involved in a murder, I don’t see how he wins.”
Short of that, or some sort of Putin ex machina, there is little Trump can do to put himself back into contention after 5 ½ months of missteps and missed opportunities.
“The race is over,” said conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace, who backed Ted Cruz in the primary. “There is nothing Trump can do. He helped the Democrats convince people he’s crazy, and they’ll always choose corrupt over crazy.”
“Trump cucked himself,” Deace added, throwing an alt-right term of derision for soft conservatives back onto the Republican who has so enthused that white nationalist crowd.
No presidential candidate since the advent of modern polling has overcome the sort of deficits Trump faces nationally — where he trails Clinton by an average of 5.9 points — and in swing states with two weeks to go in an election. In Utah, among the most reliably Republican states in any other cycle, Trump is locked in a tight race with independent Evan McMullin, a conservative Mormon.
With debate season over and the clock running out for significant swings in public opinion to materialize, the baton now goes to the get-out-the-vote operations, where Clinton enjoys an overwhelming advantage."















""I don't see it happening," Rove said on "Fox News Sunday."
If the GOP nominee "plays an inside straight, he could get it, but I doubt that he's going to be able to play it," Rove added. 
Trump appears to be able to secure 186 electoral votes when counting the states where he is leading outside of the polling margin of error or is "thought comfortably put away," Rove said.
"That compares to Romney's 206," Rove said.
"That's Romney's states minus Arizona and North Carolina, where he’s behind, and plus Iowa, where he's ahead. There's only one other -- he's ahead in Ohio by less than one point. That gets him to 214."
 Florida is the only other state in which the GOP nominee is within 4 points of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Rove said. With Florida, Trump would be at 243 electoral votes.
"And everything else ranges from 4.3 to 10 points — all the rest of the battleground states," Rove said. 
"He would have to not only win two states where he is either only slightly ahead or behind by four, but he would have to pick up states where he is behind, at, or above the national average," Rove said."





(Image courtesy of Twitter)





Remember folks, the Right wing has no one to blame for their impending defeat but themselves. They wanted an openly racist, xenophobic bigot, and they got it.






Restoring the honor!






Comments

  1. Even if you concede Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona and Nevada (which would be an amazing feat), that still only gets Trump to 265.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/nJoQd

    Clinton's firewall appears to be holding and out of reach for Trump. Remember, he went all in on a 4 state strategy:

    http://restoringthehonor.blogspot.com/2016/10/reading-tea-leaves-donald-trump-gives.html

    Polling in Pennsylvania is blue as far as the eyes can see:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    A Trump win with these circumstances would absolutely be nothing short of a miracle.

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://abc7ny.com/politics/candidates-focus-on-battleground-states-entering-final-two-weeks-of-campaign/1570193/

    "Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway outlined a path to 270 electoral votes on Sunday that banks on victories in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina along with New Hampshire and Maine's 2nd Congressional District. Assuming Trump wins all of those - and he currently trails in some - he would earn the exact number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency and no more.

    Noticeably absent from the list was Pennsylvania, a state that a top adviser privately conceded was slipping away despite Trump's aggressive courtship of the state's white working-class voters. The adviser spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal discussions."

    https://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/kellyanne-conway-finally-acknowledges-we-are-behind/

    "A top adviser to Donald Trump acknowledged on Sunday the Republican presidential candidate was lagging behind rival Hillary Clinton, as the Democratic nominee pressed a strategy of encouraging early voting in key battleground states.

    Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said Clinton had “tremendous advantages,” including a large campaign war chest that had allowed her to spend millions on television ads ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

    “We are behind,” Conway said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” But she added the Trump campaign was looking to sway undecided voters not ready to support Clinton.

    As the polling gap has widened, Trump has said repeatedly the election is being “rigged” against him. He has not offered evidence and numerous studies have shown that the U.S. election system, which is decentralized and run by the states, is sound."

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-says-trailing-in-polls-230233

    "Despite his consistent claims that he’s winning, Donald Trump on Monday conceded during a radio interview broadcast to a Charlotte audience that he’s trailing in the polls.
    “I think we’re gonna have — whether it’s Brexit or beyond Brexit, I think we’re gonna have a Brexit situation,” Trump told Bo Thompson of WBT’s “Charlotte’s Morning News,” referring to the British referendum in which voters decided to leave the European Union. “You know, that one was behind in the polls, and I guess I’m somewhat behind in the polls but not by much. I mean, in your state, I’m 1 point, 2 points and even in three polls. 1 point, 2 points and even.”
    Story Continued Below

    According to RealClearPolitics, though, Clinton leads by margins from 1 point to 4 points in six recent surveys. She leads Trump by an average of 2.5 percentage points in its average of North Carolina polls."

    I guess folks like Connie are going to argue with their candidate and his campaign manager?

    ReplyDelete
  3. By the way, here's what Conway's map looks like:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/xwRjB

    But this one is closer to reality:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/mNXpv

    ReplyDelete

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