Reading The Tea Leaves: Donald Trump gives up on Virginia, pivots to four state strategy...

(Image courtesy of 538)






Donald Trump's campaign has reportedly decided to pull their resources out of Virginia, writing the state off so that they can concentrate on four crucial battleground states necessary for a victory on November 8th. It's a risky move, the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass, but one that is probably his best and only shot of winning the Presidency. Via NBC 4 News:





"The Republican Party of Virginia and Republican National Committee remain committed to winning the commonwealth for all Republican candidates despite reports Donald Trump's campaign is "pulling out of Virginia."
Three sources with knowledge of the decision told NBC News it came from Trump's headquarters in New York and was announced on a conference call late Wednesday, leaving some Republican Party operatives in Virginia blindsided. Two staffers directly involved in the GOP's efforts in Virginia confirmed the decision.
The Republican Party of Virginia released the following statement:
"Republican Party of Virginia and Republican National Committee teams have been on the ground in the Commonwealth for two years preparing for this election. Our commitment to winning Virginia for all of our Republican candidates remains unchanged.
"The media reports saying the Trump campaign has withdrawn from Virginia come from unnamed sources and a former state co-chair who was terminated by the campaign.""




(Image courtesy of 538)






The report goes on to add:





"The move to pull out of Virginia shows Trump is "running essentially a four state campaign," with the focus now shifting to battlegrounds critical to his chances in November: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, a source with knowledge of the decision told NBC News."




(Image curtesy of 270toWin)






If Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina he will just barely have enough Electoral College votes to secure a win. Winning all four states is no small order. Just look at these polls in Pennsylvania.




(Image courtesy of 538)







Restoring the honor!






Comments

  1. Four state strategy apparently not working out so great in Ohio...

    "Two weeks ago, Ohio looked to be Donald Trump’s best big-state bet. The Republican rank and file appeared to be getting on board, and the state seemed to be fading out of reach for Hillary Clinton.
    All that’s changed.

    After several disastrous weeks for Trump, Ohio is suddenly back in play. Clinton has taken a lead in four of the last five public polls there, and the Trump campaign has returned to a war footing with the state’s GOP establishment. For Republicans, it’s a disturbing turn of events in a state that is essential to Trump’s hopes of winning the White House.

    “I think Ohio was leaning Trump, but this last week may have started to slow that trend of Ohio going to Trump,” said Ohio Republican operative Mark Weaver. “I wouldn’t suggest Hillary Clinton is winning Ohio; it might just go from leaning Trump back to tossup.”

    On Saturday, the GOP effort to capture the state’s 18 electoral votes suffered another blow. The Trump campaign cut ties with state Republican Party chairman Matt Borges after Borges publicly criticized the GOP presidential nominee following revelations that Trump had once bragged about sexually assaulting women.
    The Clinton campaign has moved aggressively to capitalize on the moment.

    In the past week alone, A-list Clinton surrogates descending on Ohio included President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton, musician John Legend, former Virginia Education Secretary Anne Holton (the wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine), activist Gloria Steinem and actress Mary Steenburgen. Clinton herself held a rally in Columbus on Monday that drew more than 18,000 people, the biggest event of her campaign."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-ohio-clinton-229859#ixzz4NIuJnR3V

    Trump is playing whack-a-mole, and that's not where you want to be three weeks away from a national election.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Donald Trump’s campaign is narrowing its focus to four swing states as the Republican nominee’s path to the White House continues to constrict.

    Sweeping Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania appear to be Trump's best chance at winning 270 electoral votes, experts and Republicans concur.

    The map continues to tighten for Trump as he slips in the polls, most of which haven’t even taken into account recent allegations of sexual assault and harassment.
    “We are in the unenviable position of having to draw the inside straight and win all of those swing states,” said Ohio GOP chairman Matt Borges.

    Falling short, or losing once-Republican strongholds of Utah or Arizona, would force Trump to string together a handful of other swing states to make up ground."

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/301110-trump-focuses-on-four-key-states

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oh shit. It's raining in Arizona:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281

    "Three weeks until Election Day, the Trump campaign and the RNC are at risk of letting historically red Arizona slip away.

    "I think he's going to lose Arizona," said Matthew Benson, a Republican state operative and former senior aide to Gov. Jan Brewer. "Barring something unforeseen, Trump is going to lose Arizona, and you're still not seeing the type of activity you'd expect to see if he expects to save it."

    The campaign has placed few resources in the state. There are five staffers aiding Trump's bid, paid for by a combination of the campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party.

    Last month, both an Arizona Republic/Arizona State University poll and an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll showed Trump and Clinton with a one percentage point margin of each other in the state.

    This comes at the tail end of a week in which the Trump campaign effectively pulled out of Virginia and cut ties with Ohio's state party chairman."

    ReplyDelete
  4. Trump decides to attack his own party so as to fire up his base. The base won't win Ohio for him. The registration deadline is gone! He needs to get people to vote for him that have registered and are not part of the rabid base. Instead of attracting them, he goes out and repels them!

    He's losing Ohio by 2.2 points. I don't see that shrinking.
    He's down in Iowa by 3 points.
    He's down in North Carolina by 3.1 points.
    He's down in Florida by 4.1 points.
    He's down in Pennsylvania by 7.5 points.
    He's down in Arizona by 0.3 points.

    If he loses any of those battleground states and keeps Arizona, he loses. If he loses Arizona he has to make up 11 electoral votes. If he loses all of those states Clinton will get 358 electoral votes and Trump will get 180. That's a 178 vote difference.

    Also, if anyone is looking at the Senate map, the numbers are improving for the Democrats across the board as well. Nevada was in the red, but moved into the blue this week. In every competitive race the Democrat has either pulled away, gained ground, or increased their lead in a close race. Missouri is extremely close and the momentum is on the Democrats side. I wonder what is going to happen to the House races?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The map is looking really bleak for Trump. I was expecting the polls to start to tighten again. Haven't seen it yet, but the polls do tend to lag. This week we have the final debate, which is Trump's last chance to do anything big really before the election. Other than that, they are left with stunts like firebombing their own offices.

      At this point I think Trump is just pumping them up for what comes next, for a big chunk of them, it will be their move towards open white supremacism, for others, it will be retreating back to run of the mill Conservatism. The GOP is too fractured after this election. The Party has been split in half. I don't think they can put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Post election is going to be fun. If it doesn't spiral into violence, it's going to be fun to watch them eat each other alive with the blame game.

      Delete
    2. The GOP is just going to have to accept the reality and responsibility for creating the monster of cognitive dissonance that it has. It must create a new platform that is inclusive and aimed at the millennial generation and their desires. The GOP has to face the reality that the Baby Boomer generation is now beginning to die off and that a large part of that generation has a problem accepting reality.

      To do that they have to accept some losses and a short term loss of power on the national level. If they don't do it, they are going to be irrelevant for a longer period of time. Put it this way, they couldn't beat Obama in a down economy with the anger over the ACA. They couldn't beat Hillary with the reality show pull of Donald Trump marshaling the forces of hatred, racism, and bigotry. 2020 looms large with no change in sight.

      Delete
    3. Trump never wanted to be President. All he knows and cares about is money. The reason he's hammering the media is because he's starting a new TV network to cater to dumb Right wingers post election.

      Delete
  5. Among Trump's 4 state blues is Florida:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/17/in-deep-red-florida-signs-of-trouble-for-donald-trump/92289190/

    "There's no chance a majority of voters in The Villages, which spreads into Lake and Marion counties, will support Clinton, But if Trump doesn’t completely dominate Clinton there, he’s in “huge trouble,” said David Johnson, a veteran of Florida Republican campaigns who runs a political consulting business in Tallahassee.
    “He has to have higher turnout there,” Johnson said, “He has to have high turnout in the Panhandle and Jacksonville and those traditional Republican areas to overcome what he may very well lose among what we used to call soccer moms.”"

    It adds:

    "But a recent analysis by a Republican firm suggests Trump faces a tougher challenge than Clinton in avoiding defections in Florida."

    ReplyDelete

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