Reading The Tea Leaves: At this point, a Trump win isn't impossible, but it would be unprecedented...

538's Polls Only Forecast. (Image courtesy of 538)

What a difference a couple of weeks makes. When last we checked in, Hillary Clinton was a 63% favorite to win the election according to 538's forecast. Since that time, Clinton's chances have improved by an additional 23% to her current 86.9% chance of being the victor in the Presidential election, come November 8th. We are still 6 days from the third and final Presidential debate, and 26 days away from election day. In the grand scheme of things, that's still an awful lot of time in an election. Almost anything can happen with that much time left. At this point though, it's fairly safe to say it's Hillary's election to lose, but how likely is it that that will happen? Historically, not too good.  Via 538:

"Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically unprecedented."

A comparison of October polling averages and election results. (Image courtesy of 538)

The piece continues:

"Simply put, there isn’t a precedent for a candidate coming back to win this late in the game after being behind by as much as Trump is now. That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.
The nearest precedent available — if you squint and cover one eye — is probably 1992. The polling error that year, 8.5 percentage points, was larger than Trump’s current deficit in our polls-only forecast. In mid-October of 1992, Bill Clinton held a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush. Clinton won, but only by about 6 points.
But the 1992 campaign isn’t a great model for the Trump campaign. First, Bush still lost. Second, 1992 featured a strong independent candidate in Ross Perot, which made polling the race more difficult. Gary Johnson’s support, in contrast, appears to be shrinking, which creates less volatility. And while Bush was hemorrhaging Republican support — as Trump is now — he still ended up losing more Republicans than Bill Clinton did Democrats on Election Day. That won’t work for Trump this year given that there are usually more self-identified Democrats than Republicans."

(Image courtesy of Facebook)

Restoring the honor!


  1. Donald's not trying to hear that mess...

  2. The conservative echo chamber is reverberating with denial. Those people are about to discover reality which I'm sure they will deny as much as they can. At some point you would think they would realize their views are being rejected by the nation, but I wouldn't count on it.

    1. One thing I would like to see is the checks and balances upheld. I think that there should always be a firewall against absolute power. It's been a crazy few days politically and it's probably going to get crazier. If Trump is going to pull out a win, something really big will probably have to occur. He has both the clock and the poll numbers stacked against him right now. Granted, no one nows what he still has up his sleeve, but then again, we don't know what she has up her sleeve either. I think those Apprentice tapes are definitely going to leak, and if Trump said "nigger" as some are reporting, that's going to be the ballgame for sure.

    2. He's already lost ground with the early voting crowd. Those votes are cast and he cannot influence those voters. Absentee ballots are going to be coming in soon too and he can't influence them either. He's down to 26 days and instead of focusing on ways to influence the undecided voters he went out, attacked his own party, and fired up the small base of rabid supporters. That base has already decided to vote for him regardless of what he does. He needs to get other voters to vote for him and he isn't doing it.

      Voter registration is ending in the next two days in almost all states. He can't win the votes of those who don't register. There is a small group of undecided voters and he has to get them to vote for him or he loses. Most of those people make up their minds by the two week mark. He has one debate left and it may be too late by then.

      It may not matter either because he can't debate. The format doesn't allow him to do what he does best which is to whip the rabid fans into a frenzy. He lost both debates by significant margins which is translating into even bigger gains by Clinton and as it sure looks now, the Democratic Senate races.

    3. I hesitate to say it's over, but...

      Going to be a rough November methinks.


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