Reading The Tea Leaves: At this point, a Trump win isn't impossible, but it would be unprecedented...
|538's Polls Only Forecast. (Image courtesy of 538)|
What a difference a couple of weeks makes. When last we checked in, Hillary Clinton was a 63% favorite to win the election according to 538's forecast. Since that time, Clinton's chances have improved by an additional 23% to her current 86.9% chance of being the victor in the Presidential election, come November 8th. We are still 6 days from the third and final Presidential debate, and 26 days away from election day. In the grand scheme of things, that's still an awful lot of time in an election. Almost anything can happen with that much time left. At this point though, it's fairly safe to say it's Hillary's election to lose, but how likely is it that that will happen? Historically, not too good. Via 538:
"Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically unprecedented."
|A comparison of October polling averages and election results. (Image courtesy of 538)|
The piece continues:
"Simply put, there isn’t a precedent for a candidate coming back to win this late in the game after being behind by as much as Trump is now. That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.
The nearest precedent available — if you squint and cover one eye — is probably 1992. The polling error that year, 8.5 percentage points, was larger than Trump’s current deficit in our polls-only forecast. In mid-October of 1992, Bill Clinton held a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush. Clinton won, but only by about 6 points.
But the 1992 campaign isn’t a great model for the Trump campaign. First, Bush still lost. Second, 1992 featured a strong independent candidate in Ross Perot, which made polling the race more difficult. Gary Johnson’s support, in contrast, appears to be shrinking, which creates less volatility. And while Bush was hemorrhaging Republican support — as Trump is now — he still ended up losing more Republicans than Bill Clinton did Democrats on Election Day. That won’t work for Trump this year given that there are usually more self-identified Democrats than Republicans."
|(Image courtesy of Facebook)|
Restoring the honor!