Countdown to Meltdown: 9 days and counting...

(Image courtesy of 538)





Folks, the polls are definitely tightening. This started prior to the FBI October surprise that dropped Friday afternoon. Everyone knows how these October surprises work, and it was no secret that this was coming, but how dirty and low of Trump. Although the emails probably aren't even relevant to Clinton, and Comey stabbed her right in the back, this news is definitely going to hurt Clinton's chances of winning this election, possibly even costing her this election. We've all been waiting to see what the next shoe is to drop. I said before, that Clinton isn't going to drop her October surprise (if she has one, and I find it hard to believe that she doesn't) until sometime between November 1-3.  Reason being, they want it to be fresh in voters minds as they go to the polls. It takes between 5-7 days for the results of these news stories to really start to be reflected in polling. 





(Image courtesy of Facebook)





Pretty much everything that happens this week, we won't really know how it affects the race until election day. No matter what happens, we are now inside the window of wait and see. The truth is, no one really knows how this is going to turn out. But we can look at likely scenarios. 538 is still projecting that Clinton has a 78.5% chance of winning the election to Donald Trump's 21.4% according to their polls-only forecast. You have to remember though, that none of the FBI fallout has been baked into the cake yet. It's just too early to see how that news has changed the race, although 538 says that historically, October surprises don't typically move the polls any more than 2 points, but in a tight race, 2 points can be a really, really big deal. I think this is a tight race. I think it is much closer than a lot of people have been saying. I always thought it was going to end neck and neck, and now here we are, on the cusp of that reality now. 





(Image courtesy of 538)






Over the last few days, Clinton's numbers look to be in the beginning of a free fall, and I expect that they will plateau somewhere around the 55% range before election day. At this point, even if something dramatic happens that shifts momentum back to Clinton, I doubt we will see it reflected in the polls very much, and that's a shame because that means that it will appear as though she is fighting a headwind for the rest of the race. The news coverage will likely reflect this, and will shape public opinion in a very crucial time. On the brightside, a tight race is probably better for her because there will be more incentive for her supporters to get off of their asses and go vote. Complacency and low enthusiasm are two problems Clinton has been fighting this entire race. In the end, I think that the majority of Lefties who were hold-outs will come home and vote for Clinton. So lets look at some polling. First, the good news for Trump. I think he's going to take Ohio, Iowa and Arizona. Of the three, Arizona is probably the biggest question mark looming. Is Arizona really in play for Clinton? We'll have to wait and see, but recent polling shows that it is between +1 - +2 for Trump, which is actually pretty close to dead even.





OHIO




(Image courtesy of 538)




IOWA




(Image courtesy of 538)




ARIZONA




(Image courtesy of 538)





On the flip side, Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are all looking like done deals for Clinton.





VIRGINIA




(Image courtesy of 538)




PENNSYLVANIA




(Image courtesy of 538)





NEW HAMPSHIRE





(Image courtesy of 538)





Which leaves Florida and North Carolina as the two true battlegrounds of this election for Clinton and Trump to fight over. Remember, Trump cannot win the election without Florida. Of the two states, I see North Carolina as being more favorable to a Clinton pick-up, with Florida being a knock-down, drag-out fight to the end.





FLORIDA




(Image courtesy of 538)





NORTH CAROLINA




(Image courtesy of 538)





And then there is Utah. Wait, what? Yes, Utah. Utah is traditionally one of the safest red states, except this year Mormon Evan Mcmullin is really complicating things for Trump, peeling off enough votes to make it competitive for Clinton or perhaps even putting it in range for him to win outright.  




(Image courtesy of Real Clear Politics)






Mcmullin's candidacy has complicated things so much for Trump that Trump is spending valuable time arguing over why voters shouldn't consider the Independent, when he should be concentrating on Clinton.






(Image courtesy of 538)






Strap yourselves in folks, it's going to be a wild nine days.







Restoring the honor!












Comments

  1. How dirty and low of TRUMP? The FBI was investigating Anthony Weiner for sending lewd emails (including pornographic videos) over the Internet to an underage girl in another state. They checked his personal laptop. They found not only HIS filthy emails, but Huma's -- the lovely couple apparently shared this personal laptop. And what was in Huma's emails? Some of Clinton's classified emails.

    One of Huma's jobs at State was to go through Hillary's emails and determine when to delete old ones. She was supposed to do it on State Department computers, but she forwarded them to her personal account so she could read/delete at home. Apparently, she got "behind" on the job, as there were TENS OF THOUSANDS of HILLARY CLINTON's emails on ANTHONY WEINER'S PERSONAL LAPTOP.

    Don't blame Trump, you liar.

    Comey was already in trouble for admitting Hillary violated the law and lied about it, but he wasn't going to do anything about it. He had a mutiny on his hands from his underlings at the FBI. COMEY HAS CONNECTIONS TO THE CLINTON FOUNDATION, Jacob. For cryin' out loud, GET A CLUE.

    These people you support are corrupt to the core. They are gut-deep corrupt. They would be HORRIBLE for the country if Clinton had the power of the presidency in her hands.

    Also, the media functions as a PR firm for the Clinton campaign. They protect her. They will do everything they can to suppress this YUGE and very damaging story.

    You must hate this country far, far more than even I imagined, if you want Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That sounds great until you read the Department of Justice's Government Ethics Outline:

      https://www.justice.gov/jmd/government-ethics-outline

      "III. Outside Activities

      F. Partisan Political Activities

      1. Public Law 103-94 amended 5 U.S.C. §§ 7321-26 (The Hatch Act) to lighten the restrictions on participation in partisan political activities for most employees.

      d. No employee may use his official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the result of an election; solicit, accept or receive a political contribution from the public, other than from a fellow member of an employee union; sponsor a fundraiser; run for nomination or election to a partisan political office; or solicit or discourage the participation in political activities of anyone who has business with the Department."

      This was certainly a dirty trick, even so, if Trump wins, this will probably be the reason.

      Delete
    2. http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/10/30/judge-jeanine-pirro-opening-statement-jim-comey-announcement-fbi-hillary-clinton-disgrace

      http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/oct/30/robby-mook/clinton-campaign-says-comey-letter-violates-justic/

      Delete
    3. Comey's investigating a FLIPPIN' CRIME, Jacob. It's not his fault the criminal and her cohorts are in politics and one is running for office. Actually, Comey's connections to the Clinton Foundation need to be investigated ... huge conflict of interest....

      BTW, Robbie Mook is an idiot.

      Delete
    4. The relevance of Weiner's emails to Clinton is unknown at this time, the timing is what is despicable, especially when news reports show they've had this info for weeks.

      But I hear that's not all he was sitting on...

      Delete
    5. They are not HIS emails. What's known is that classified emails from Clinton's illegal server showed up on Anthony Weiner's laptop. Tens of thousands of them. Whether they are emails the FBI already knows about, or previously undiscovered ones hasn't been reported.

      Comey has been "sitting on" this manhole cover for weeks trying to hold it down and keep the crap inside from spewing out ... but he can't do that anymore...

      FBI agents in mutiny against Comey; resignation letters piling up on his desk
      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886942/Resignation-letters-piling-disaffected-FBI-agents-wife-urging-admit-wrong-Director-Comey-jumped-chance-reopen-Hillary-investigation.html

      And now we have a columnist from the Chicago Tribune telling Democrats to get rid of Hillary....
      http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/ct-hillary-clinton-emails-kass-1030-20161028-column.html

      Delete
    6. The bottom line, Jacob, is the Clinton Foundation -- utterly corrupt, rotten, smells to high Heaven. And it underlies EVERYTHING.



      http://www.westernjournalism.com/krauthammer-hillary-used-private-email-to-hide-clinton-foundations-dirty-secrets/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=WesternJournalism&utm_content=2016-10-29&utm_campaign=manualpost

      Excerpts -- very telling excerpts... Krauthammer nails it...

      “Think about it, she set it (the illegal server) up in 2009, before becoming secretary of state. So she anticipated having exchanges that she would not want anyone to see. So we’ve been asking ourselves on this set for a year almost, what exactly didn’t she want people to see? Well, now we know,” Krauthammer said.

      “As we speculated, the most plausible explanation was the rank corruption of the Clinton Foundation and its corrupt — I don’t know if it’s illegal, but corrupt relationship with the State Department,” he said.

      “Its (the Foundation's) purpose is to maintain the Clintons’ lifestyle (offices, travel, accommodations, etc.), secure profitable connections, produce favorable publicity, and reliably employ a vast entourage of retainers, ready to serve today and at the coming Clinton Restoration. Now we learn how the whole machine operated,” he added.

      Krauthammer noted that “e-mails began dribbling out showing foundation officials contacting State Department counterparts to ask favors for foundation ‘friends.'”

      He noted that the only thing saving the Clintons is the swamp of political culture in which Washington operates.

      Delete
  2. Florida


    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/225853-steve-schale-notes-fifth-day-early-voting-florida


    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

    “Donald J. Trump has slowly but surely improved his standing in state and national polls since the final presidential debate.

    A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Sunday is consistent with that trend: It gives Mr. Trump a four-point lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, in a four-way race. In our first poll of Florida a month ago, Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.

    The survey is Mr. Trump’s best recent poll in Florida, and it should be interpreted with caution. In general, it is best to look at an average of polls. Mrs. Clinton still leads in an average of recent Florida surveys by nearly three points.

    But the poll is not the only one to show Mr. Trump in the lead. A Bloomberg/Selzer poll, which is methodologically similar to the New York Times Upshot/Siena poll, showed Mr. Trump with a two-point edge last week.

    Mr. Trump, a Republican, has no plausible path to the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes. But his Democratic opponent has many ways to win without the state. Mrs. Clinton would almost certainly win if she carried North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where recent Upshot/Siena polls have shown her with a comfortable advantage.”




    Nevada


    http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

    “So here's how daunting it is for Donald Trump right now in Nevada, with six days left in early/mail voting, which is usually 60 percent or so of all votes cast:

    If you assume he and Hillary Clinton get 90 percent of their bases (and almost no poll shows Trump doing that well), and she loses indies by 20 points (and most here show her up with indies) she STILL wins the state by 2 points.

    Let's suppose Republicans end up coalescing and he gets 90 percent and she gets only 80 percent of Democrats -- a highly unlikely scenario, to put it mildly -- he would still need to win indies by at least 10 points to win the state.

    That is what the nearly 90,000-voter registration edge does for the Democrats in Nevada -- if they have their usual turnout, it's almost impossible for Trump to win.”



    ReplyDelete


  3. North Carolina


    http://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2016/10/28/lagging-black-nc-vote-may-now-rise/92884256/

    “Polls and early voting numbers show an edge for Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, a battleground state that could shut the door on Republican rival Donald Trump's White House hopes.

    But Clinton's advantage is tenuous, and it has happened thus far without big help from African-Americans, a group that has played a significant role for Democrats.

    Now, with the opening of 145 more early voting sites Thursday and Friday, analysts are saying that African-American voting numbers may start to resemble those of past elections — even without the marquee persona of Obama.

    The big time for change might be this weekend. Four years ago on Saturday, black North Carolinians made up 30 percent of early voters on that one day, despite being just 22 percent of the population.

    "That’s why I say Saturday is huge for Democrats and black voters," said Mike Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College in Salisbury nationally known for his slicing and dicing of North Carolina election demographics.

    African-Americans vote Democratic 95 percent of the time and are "the most reliable core" of that party's coalition, Bitzer said.

    The uneven rollout of early voting sites came after a federal appeals court ruled the GOP-controlled state legislature illegally sought to boost its advantage with ballot access rules intended to discriminate against minorities, who predominantly vote Democratic.

    The court struck down a measure that set a 10-day early voting period, effectively restoring another seven days. That started a scramble in many counties to accommodate another week of early voting.”



    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=6&pgtype=sectionfront

    “There aren’t many states more important this November than North Carolina, a rapidly changing state crucial to Donald J. Trump’s hopes of winning the White House and to Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate. If Mr. Trump does not win the state, his path to the presidency – already narrow – becomes nearly impossible.

    There also aren’t many states with better election data than North Carolina. The state releases detailed, individual-level information on every voter in the state. It even publishes a daily account of who has voted early, either in person or by mail.

    To get a better sense of what’s going on, we’re trying an experiment: We’re estimating the result of the early vote and the Election Day vote by combining the rich data released by North Carolina with data from the Upshot/Siena survey of North Carolina.

    Already, about 1,599,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,444,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 14 percentage points – among people who have already voted.”



    Pennsylvania

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&region=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined&pgtype=Multimedia


    “If Donald J. Trump has a path to the presidency with big gains among white working-class voters, it has to run through Pennsylvania — a disproportionately white, blue-collar state with few Hispanic voters.

    But a New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll released Thursday indicates that Pennsylvania remains out of reach for Mr. Trump.

    Hillary Clinton leads him by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a four-way race.”



    ReplyDelete
  4. Hispanics are over performing in Florida, possibly a good sign for Clinton:

    https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/hispanic-turnout-is-the-the-big-story-in-florida/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Now there are indications the illegal server emails have showed up not only on Weiner's laptop, but on his desktop computer, as well. We'll have to wait and see if that was some reporter's mistake or if it shows double contempt for the rule of law by the Clinton camp.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Jacob, try to come forward out of the past. This is not Republican vs Democrat. It is Americans (conservative, Trumpers) vs. Destroyers (Hillary and her nest of criminals and miscreants).

    So, what did you think of Krauthammer's recap?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I completely agree with this assessment, but still unsure if Hillary can win this or not. It's going to be really close. I made this same assessment a few weeks ago. The closer the race is, the better for Clinton.

    www.cnbc.com/amp/2016/10/31/hillarys-email-probe-is-going-to-help-her-beat-trump.html

    "The email scandal that is threatening to upset Hillary Clinton's campaign to be president could, in fact, help her, according to one analyst."

    And:

    ""Trump voters are very enthusiastic about Trump so they will come out to vote.

    "Clinton voters are often not so enthusiastic about her, so if people see the polls are cloning closer together the level of complacency that many hold will be removed and lots of people will therefore come out for Clinton that otherwise might not," said Wickett."

    ReplyDelete

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