Countdown to Meltdown: 14 days and counting...
|(Image courtesy of 270 to Win)|
270 to Win's Consensus Pundit Map is an aggregate of the ratings of 15 pundit forecasts, including: Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report, FiveThirtyEight (Polls-Plus), Associated Press, NBC Political Unit, The Fix (Washington Post), ABC News, NPR, CNN, Princeton Election Consortium, Fox News, Governing, NYT Upshot and PredictWise. We will be bringing you a daily snapshot of the forecast consensus every day, now through election day. You can check out individual pundit forecast maps here.
On election night, this map will be my starting point map. I will be relying heavily upon analysis from Nate Silver's 538, and I'll also be keeping my eyes on Votecastr, which will be providing realtime analysis, minute by minute, all day long. Poll closing times can be found here or on a handy map here. I expect that it will be an early night. Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire kick things off at 7pm, when all three states polls close. North Carolina and Ohio both close at 730pm, and no Republican President has ever won the office without Ohio. Because of the order of the most important battleground states, we should know who the next President will be by 9pm. Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, has already laid out a path to a Trump victory which doesn't include Pennsylvania. Instead, they'll be relying upon Maine's 2nd Congressional District and New Hampshire (which closes at 7pm). Maine and Pennsylvania both close at 8pm, and loss in Pennsylvania would be the final nails in Trump's coffin, as there is almost no scenario Trump wins without the state. If Trump happens to pick up Florida, it will be sometime after 9pm before we learn who the winner will be as Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin all close at 9pm. (Note: All times are Eastern Standard Time.)
Restoring the honor!