Countdown to Meltdown: 14 days and counting...

(Image courtesy of 270 to Win)





270 to Win's Consensus Pundit Map is an aggregate of the ratings of 15 pundit forecasts, including: Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report, FiveThirtyEight (Polls-Plus), Associated Press, NBC Political Unit, The Fix (Washington Post), ABC News, NPR, CNN, Princeton Election Consortium, Fox News, Governing, NYT Upshot and PredictWise. We will be bringing you a daily snapshot of the forecast consensus every day, now through election day. You can check out individual pundit forecast maps here.

On election night, this map will be my starting point map. I will be relying heavily upon analysis from Nate Silver's 538, and I'll also be keeping my eyes on Votecastr, which will be providing realtime analysis, minute by minute, all day long. Poll closing times can be found here or on a handy map here. I expect that it will be an early night. Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire kick things off at 7pm, when all three states polls close. North Carolina and Ohio both close at 730pm, and no Republican President has ever won the office without Ohio. Because of the order of the most important battleground states, we should know who the next President will be by 9pm. Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, has already laid out a path to a Trump victory which doesn't include Pennsylvania. Instead, they'll be relying upon Maine's 2nd Congressional District and New Hampshire (which closes at 7pm). Maine and Pennsylvania both close at 8pm, and loss in Pennsylvania would be the final nails in Trump's coffin, as there is almost no scenario Trump wins without the state. If Trump happens to pick up Florida, it will be sometime after 9pm before we learn who the winner will be as Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin all close at 9pm. (Note: All times are Eastern Standard Time.)






Restoring the honor!






Comments

  1. This is certainly NOT going to help Trump:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/24/inside-donald-trump-s-one-stop-parties-attendees-recall-cocaine-and-very-young-models.html

    "I’m sorry, Ivanka, I really am, because your mother raised you well and I can’t blame you for supporting your father (even if he did give—at the least—his blessing when you were 15 and signed on as a model yourself with Elite, the hard-partying high-end agency founded by notorious teen-fucker John Casablancas) but here’s the sad truth: Your dad’s not a dog. He’s a pig."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Trump is playing whack-a-mole:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/evan-mcmullin-utah/

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  3. I may watch FOX just to see some of them melt down. No matter what, I'm going to be laughing as the alt-right freaks out when reality kicks them in the ass.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This mornings bad news for Team Trump:

      http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-florida-230275

      "“On the presidential race we’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead in surveys that attempt to reflect Florida’s actual electorate,” Ryan D. Tyson, vice president of political operations for the Associated Industries of Florida business group wrote in a confidential memo emailed to his conservative-leaning members this weekend and obtained by POLITICO.
      Though Clinton’s lead is “within the margin of error for this survey, we would suggest that 3% really isn’t as close as it may seem in the state of Florida,” Tyson wrote, estimating a turnout of as much as 71 percent, or as many as 9.2 million Florida voters overall. If that happens and the polling margins hold, Clinton’s raw vote lead over Trump could end up being 275,000 to 460,000 votes.

      “This is in all reality a landslide in our great state,” Tyson wrote, echoing the concerns of numerous Florida Republican insiders and experts. “Based on his consistent failure to improve his standing with non-white voters, voters under 50 and females, it seems fairly obvious to us that Mr. Trump’s only hope left in Florida is a low turnout.”"

      Delete

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