Countdown to Meltdown: 12 days and counting...

(Image courtesy of 538)





Folks, I expected the polls to tighten as election day draws near, but so far, it hasn't materialized. Via 538:





"It seems like we’re overdue for another round of “is the presidential race tightening?” And the answer isn’t totally clear. Our model thinks Donald Trump has probably narrowed his deficit against Clinton slightly, but the difference is modest enough that we’ve wanted to change our answer with every new round of polls. And in general, we’re reluctant to proclaim any turnaround in the race while we still have to squint to see a shift."




(Image courtesy of 538)






The piece concludes by adding:





"With all that said, Trump’s chances of winning the election haven’t improved very much in our forecast. His odds are 15 percent in our polls-only forecast, not appreciably changed from 13 percent a week ago, and 16 percent in our polls-plus forecast, as compared with 15 percent last week. That’s because the modest gains Trump has made are partly offset by time running off the clock, and the number of undecided voters declining.
So then: Democrats have nothing to worry about, right? Nope, we wouldn’t say that, either. The race could easily tighten further. And our forecast gives Trump better odds than most other models because it accounts for the possibility of a systemic polling error, a greater risk than people may assume. A 16 percent chance of a Trump presidency isn’t nothing — as we’ve pointed out before, it’s about the same as the chances of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. And 15 percent is about the same chance we gave the San Antonio Spurs of beating the Golden State Warriors last night — the Spurs won by 29 points."






Restoring the honor!






Comments

  1. This should make the last week of the election cycle more interesting: https://goo.gl/tQt12u

    It's disappointing that Duke has enough support to be included in that debate.

    ReplyDelete

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