Reading The Tea Leaves: Why Hillary Clinton will probably still beat Donald Trump...

My election prediction. (Image courtesy of Real Clear Politics)






Folks, we're going to continue to check in on the progress of the Presidential horserace until election day, once a week. Even after her really, really, really, really bad week, and as long as she doesn't continue to lose support, Hillary Clinton will probably still win this election, and a whole shit ton of Confederate Heritage activists will be crying in their cornflakes, come November 9th. Despite major losses in support over the last week, Clinton still appears to be up in three critical states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan). Via NBC News:




"Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have voted Democratic every presidential election cycle since 1992, accounting for 242 electoral votes. Those states alone — often dubbed the "Blue Wall" — put the Democrats only 28 electoral votes away from the 270 they need to win.
That gives Democrats plenty of room for error, as there are several avenues for the party's nominee to get those extra 28 electoral votes — including some that avoid the always treacherous swing states of Ohio and Florida.
Republicans, on the other hand, have consistently won only 13 states over that same period, for a tally of 102 electoral votes. Trump needs to win both Florida and Ohio, or he needs flip long-held Democratic states like Pennsylvania."





(Images courtesy of 538 Blog)







As I said before, if Trump can't close the gaps in one of those three states, I don't think he's going to pull this off. According to 538 estimates, the two are still separated by about 30 percentage points in all three states. If Trump can pick off one of those three (which I personally think is unlikely), he would still need to flip New Hampshire to pull it off.





(Image courtesy of 538 Blog)




Keep your eyes on Florida, which is Clinton's best bet for a pick-off from Trump and which would be devastating to his chances. 1 percent is not that big a gap to close. 





(Image courtesy of 538 Blog)




Even after Clinton's really bad week, 538 estimates put her chances of winning the election about 20 percentage points better than Trump's. Honestly, I think the narrower the gap in the polls, the better for Clinton. One thing the Dems have been worried about is overconfidence of their voters. The more the polls tighten, the more dire her chances of winning look, the higher the probability of larger Democrat turnout, which will be better for Clinton's chance of winning the Presidency.





(Image courtesy of 538 Blog)






And oh yeah, by the way, Trump has never backed off of his opinion that the rag belongs in a museum. Despite the fact that Trump is on our side when it comes to the rag, Confederate Heritage has swallowed his cock all the way down to his sweaty, wrinkly, old balls. GULP!






(Image courtesy of Facebook)








Restoring the honor!








Comments

  1. He said the flag in Columbia SC belonged in a museum. Then, the cockamamie interviewer said, "Were you pleased to see Confederate flags coming down from some of those flag poles?" There were no other flags or poles removed when the one on the statehouse grounds was removed. It isn't clear WHAT flags and poles he's talking about, but Trump says "...a lot of people are looking at that as freedom of expression and I hate to do anything that's going to stop or suppress free speech."

    It's not a ringing endorsement of the flag, but it's certainly not the rabid, PC burn 'em all position, either. In any case, this doesn't seem to be a huge blip on his radar screen.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5osmjxPrWA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you can call her Compromisin' Chastain. What's principle, after all? Nothing to a Confederate heritage advocate.

      Delete
  2. Jacob, your gutter-level morality, as expressed here, sure tells us what's on YOUR mind -- what you think about, dwell on...

    It also explains things like cutting off the part of my comment you don't want other people to see....

    https://www.facebook.com/connie.chastain/posts/10207347656230658

    The polls are rigged, and if Clinton wins, you can bet it will be by theft, cheating and election fraud.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't care if they see the rest of your comment, I just wanted to make sure they see the part where you go all in on The Donald. It's not surprising, there are tons of deplorable people like you in the basket.

      Delete
    2. What does "go all in on the Donald" mean? I said I support him, period. My comment was mostly about NOT supporting the Hildabeast.

      Delete
  3. Also, copying and pasting, which seems to be all you are capable of in life, doesn't make you an election expert. Even the worshipful press is starting to turn on the Hildabeast. Behind the scenes, the Democrats are scrambling for a replacement, knowing their nominee could blow at a critical seam at any moment. She's sick, physically and mentally, and incompetent to be on the county soil and water board, much less president. She is totally amoral. She has no loyalty to the USA or its people. Her constituency/deplorables (gays, lesbians, trans, whatever else kinda gender they've fabricated, illegal aliens, criminals like herself, etc., aren't numerous enough to get her elected. She's gonna shatter, crumble and collapse in the debates...

    Don't cry too much when Trump gets sworn in, now, ya heah?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Democrats aren't replacing anyone. Hillary is their candidate. I'm not carrying water for Hillary. I think she is a crook and I'm not fond of her, but that doesn't change Electoral College math. Unfortunately, people like yourself are unwilling to accept that the Electoral College exists. The popular vote doesn't matter at the end of the day, what will matter is turnout. Both candidates are wildly unpopular. Turnout is what will decide this election. I think last week is a net positive for Clinton, and the reason why is because Clinton voters are going to be more likely to get out of the house and vote if they truly believe Donald Trump is going to win, or has a very real chance at winning. My theory is that there was nothing wrong with her. I think that it was a campaign stunt to close the gaps on the poll numbers to make it a critically close race. You can pt your head in the sand if you want, but that's not going to change the electoral math.

      I don't really care if Trump wins, want to know why? Because neither Trump nor Hillary is going to fix any of the problems in our country, only we can do that.

      Delete
    2. He will do things like slow, maybe even stop, illegal aliens from coming into the country and living off the taxpayers. Clinton would never do that. It really will mean the end of the country if she is elected.

      Delete
    3. Really? How will he do that? Explain it to me.

      Delete
    4. He will see to it that federal immigration laws are enforced. Obama could do that now, but he likes the illegal alien underclass....

      Delete
    5. Wait. Obama isn't doing it now?

      http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obamas-deportation-policy-numbers/story?id=41715661

      http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2014/04/07/report-deportations-quadrupled-with-obama-two-thirds-were-for-minor-offenses/

      Delete
  4. North Carolina (like Florida) is another close state which she could flip.

    Most experts believe that in order for the blue wall to fall, there will be a run of states, not just one. I'm not seeing anything like that being reflected in current polling data.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is for Connie, I know she gets confused easily:

    http://www.learnnc.org/lp/media/lessons/davidwalbert7232004-02/electoralcollege.html#4

    ReplyDelete
  6. Some light reading for our politically challenged friend...

    "Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

    The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, found Clinton leading the presidential race in the key battleground state, with 47% of respondents saying they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump was at 38%, while 11% said they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4% said they are not sure.

    Pennsylvania is a must-win state for both candidates. Many analysts regard it as the key bellwether for this election."

    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-clinton-maintains-lead-in-pennsylvania-1474205570-htmlstory.html

    As I said, if Donald can't make inroads into the Blue Wall, Hillary will be our next President. There is still a lot of time left on the clock, and yes, she can still lose this.

    ReplyDelete
  7. That's not "lite reading." It is spin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We're going to talk about Electoral College scenarios next week, and why Trump is fighting an uphill battle. At your age, I doubt you'll learn anything.

      If Clinton picks up just Florida, forget it. It's over. That's reality.

      Delete
    2. More light reading for Connie:

      http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html

      "Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.

      Since Pennsylvania is more secure for the Clinton camp than other swing states, it’s unlikely that Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins either Florida or Ohio or other states to make up for the necessary electoral votes. And Trump could take Florida and Ohio and North Carolina, and go over the top with some other combination of swing states. But Pennsylvania is his most likely route."

      David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets

      And:

      http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-hillary-clinton-campaign-pennsylvania-20160918-story.html

      ""There is no Trump turnout organization, and you can't construct one" in the time remaining, said former Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell.

      For Trump, nearly any route to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House includes Pennsylvania's 20 votes. With Clinton's edge in Colorado and Virginia, and her competitive standing in North Carolina, Trump could potentially win vote-rich Florida and Ohio, as well as competitive Iowa and New Hampshire, and still fall short of the White House unless he can capture Pennsylvania, too.

      Clinton's strategy is focused firmly on the eastern part of the state. Obama won 85 percent of the vote in Philadelphia in 2012, and Clinton has her sights set on coming as close as she can to his performance there while also outperforming Obama in the four suburban counties bordering the city.

      Almost 2 million votes, or fully one-third of the 5.67 million presidential votes cast in the state in 2012, came from Philadelphia plus Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties. It's a region replete with moderate Republicans struggling with the decision about whether to support Trump."

      Delete
  8. I'm sure Chastain is working hard to secure Florida for Trump. Go, you West Florida Flaggers!

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm a 538 dork.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-top-must-win-states-for-trump-and-clinton/

    "A Clinton win in Florida would be a very bad sign for Trump. In 29 percent of our polls-only model’s simulations, Clinton wins the election while losing Florida; Trump wins just 6 percent of the time when losing the Sunshine State. It’s as close to a must-win for Trump as a battleground state can be (although, again, the causality is backward — Trump doesn’t lose the election because he loses Florida, he loses Florida because he’s losing the election). Florida leans slightly more Republican than the country overall, so a GOP candidate almost always wins it when winning nationally. The last time a Republican won the presidency without Florida was in 1924. Trump is just the slightest of favorites in Florida at the moment, with a 52 percent chance of winning the state — which gives you an idea of why he’s still an underdog in this election.

    Other nearly must-wins for Trump include Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. Trump holds small leads in all three states but has less than a 60 percent chance in North Carolina and Ohio. Now, it’s not as if Clinton doesn’t want to carry these states. She wins only about a third of the time when she doesn’t, but she doesn’t need them like Trump does.

    Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is close to a must-win for Clinton. She wins only 13 percent of the time when she loses that state. Trump wins a slightly higher 21 percent of the time without it.

    Two other states that Clinton pretty much needs to win are Virginia and Wisconsin. Virginia lined up nearly perfectly with the national vote in 2012 but has continued to move left since then, and Clinton rarely wins without it. That might explain why Trump has spent a lot of money advertising in the state even as Clinton continues to lead there. Wisconsin is a different story. It has gone Democratic in every election since 1988, but Trump is hoping whites without a college degree help him turn the state red. He has not led in a single high-quality poll in the state but did close the gap in a recent Marquette University poll."

    ReplyDelete

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