Reading The Tea Leaves: Why Hillary Clinton will probably still beat Donald Trump...
|My election prediction. (Image courtesy of Real Clear Politics)|
"Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have voted Democratic every presidential election cycle since 1992, accounting for 242 electoral votes. Those states alone — often dubbed the "Blue Wall" — put the Democrats only 28 electoral votes away from the 270 they need to win.
That gives Democrats plenty of room for error, as there are several avenues for the party's nominee to get those extra 28 electoral votes — including some that avoid the always treacherous swing states of Ohio and Florida.
Republicans, on the other hand, have consistently won only 13 states over that same period, for a tally of 102 electoral votes. Trump needs to win both Florida and Ohio, or he needs flip long-held Democratic states like Pennsylvania."
As I said before, if Trump can't close the gaps in one of those three states, I don't think he's going to pull this off. According to 538 estimates, the two are still separated by about 30 percentage points in all three states. If Trump can pick off one of those three (which I personally think is unlikely), he would still need to flip New Hampshire to pull it off.
Keep your eyes on Florida, which is Clinton's best bet for a pick-off from Trump and which would be devastating to his chances. 1 percent is not that big a gap to close.
Even after Clinton's really bad week, 538 estimates put her chances of winning the election about 20 percentage points better than Trump's. Honestly, I think the narrower the gap in the polls, the better for Clinton. One thing the Dems have been worried about is overconfidence of their voters. The more the polls tighten, the more dire her chances of winning look, the higher the probability of larger Democrat turnout, which will be better for Clinton's chance of winning the Presidency.
And oh yeah, by the way, Trump has never backed off of his opinion that the rag belongs in a museum. Despite the fact that Trump is on our side when it comes to the rag, Confederate Heritage has swallowed his cock all the way down to his sweaty, wrinkly, old balls. GULP!
|(Image courtesy of Facebook)|
Restoring the honor!